• As the US-led NATO alliance marked 75 years since its founding in 1949 — doing so with flags, cake, and marching bands, alongside a message from the Secretary General about the importance of unity — Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Thursday that relations between Russia and the alliance “have now slipped to the level of direct confrontation.” Reuters (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• NATO was “already involved in the conflict surrounding Ukraine [and] continues to move towards our borders and expand its military infrastructure towards our borders,” Peskov said. Reuters (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• At NATO headquarters in Brussels, where the alliance has this year taken on Sweden and Finland as new members — growing the bloc to 32 countries — NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said: “We will continue to strengthen our alliance. And we will continue to work with our partners across the globe for peace and security.” France 24
• This week’s summit was attended by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, and a larger commemoration of NATO’s 75th anniversary is expected to be held in Washington this July. Associated Press (a) (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• He told the summit that decades of peace, alongside NATO’s principles of “democracy, liberty, and the rule of law” were being threatened by those “who believe that might makes right…and who seek to redraw borders by force.” marketwatch.com
• Coming as the Russia-Ukraine war entered into its third year, and following a grinding year where Ukraine faced shortages in both men and ammunition — precipitating the loss of Avdiivka and prompting wider Russian gains elsewhere in the Donetsk region — NATO allies are reportedly discussing a $100B military aid plan. Stoltenberg declined to comment. Associated Press (b) (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Pro-establishment narrative:

• Amid Ukraine’s difficult battlefield situation, this is the time for NATO to up its support for Ukraine — not leave the country hanging out to dry after three years of fighting. Nonetheless, neither NATO nor Russia wants the possibility of an all-out conflict between nuclear-armed states.
  ASSOCIATED PRESS (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Pro-Ukraine narrative:

• Ukraine welcomes this NATO foreign ministers’ summit, particularly as Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuelba and Stoltenberg will host another meeting of the NATO-Ukraine Council. While voluntary contributions are welcome, Ukraine will seek to secure firmer and more long-term commitments as well.
  UKRAINSKA PRAVDA

Pro-Russia narrative:

• Throughout this conflict, and to the present day, Russia has only sought to protect its people, its future, and its sovereignty. Russia was forced to protect its interests in a weaponized way. Take for instance the heinous Crocus City Hall attack in Moscow last month. Its perpetrators, regardless of who their backers may be, want nothing more than to see the fall of Russia.
  TASS

Establishment-critical narrative:

• Due to the West’s collective failure of seeking to expand NATO eastwards to Russia’s borders, it started this war which has only resulted in Ukraine losing vast swaths of territory, as well as untold numbers of men and women. Rather than continue this foolish tactic and cause more destruction, Ukraine needs to push for peace.
  AMERICAN CONSERVATIVE (LR: 4 CP: 1)

Nerd narrative:

• There’s a 5% chance there will be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)