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Cake day: March 28th, 2024

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  • I agree there won’t be a big “poof!” Crash where they disappear and it’s like it didn’t happen.

    There will be a consolidation though, at least that’s the plan. They know there’s no need for four or more versions of this technology so the scheme is to be the last one standing.

    That transition will look a bit like a crash. Maybe more of a flop.

    There’s also not a lot of broader exposure to the risk yet as ownership is very limited. The initial public offerings that are coming will both generate investment as well as spread the risk to the public via banks, pension funds and the like.

    That’ll change the dynamics of who is willing to spend resources and take risks softening the flop.