No way it is as cheap as a q3. All valve have said is that they are aiming for < the price of a valve index full kit. https://www.uploadvr.com/valve-steam-frame-hands-on-impressions/

They don’t care about making profit by selling a product or a service, it’s all a speculative bet. They think if they “simply” make AGI they will win all the economy forever, and that there is no second place.

Everyone can see it coming, but they believe the AI companies’ hype that the AGI breakthrough will be here “soon”. Which if actually true, might be worth the bet.

For my money they either hit AGI and then we all die, or there is a crash before that. Yay.

It’s only pervasive because the AI companies are losing money on every generated token while burning investor money to keep the lights on. If people had to pay for what it really costs they’d be using it a lot less.

And even if they solve some problems with AI and make them smarter, they still have to solve the “actually making a profit” problem to justify these share prices. LLMs already have some use at their current level, but certainly not for the price they’d need to charge to break even, let alone actually making a profit. If they double the smarts but double the training and/or inference cost, they’ll still end up in the same place.

As I already said, it’s impossible to time it and you’d be an idiot to try. There could be three more years of bubble first in which case shorting on margin would be ruinous. “Markets can remain irrational a lot longer than you and I can remain solvent” yada yada.

I can say that nvidia is way overvalued and that it’s share price is going to go down without saying that we won’t need powerful chips.

I have similar concerns, comparing gdp to valuation seems nonsensical. But at the same time the valuation is still ludicrous. Nvidia designs chips, TSMC makes them, datacenters buy them, datacenters sell the compute to AI vendors like openai who sell services to customers for a price that doesn’t cover even a fraction their costs, let alone being profitable.

In my book, either two things will happen. Before the money runs out, the AI companies will hit their stated goal of AGI, but without doing any of the safety work, and then everybody dies. The money running out and GFC 2.0 is the “good” ending. If I was even remotely confident in my ability to guess the timing of how it would all play out I’d be shorting up to my eyeballs.

Btrfs used to be easier to install because it is part of the kernel while zfs required shenanigans, though I think that has changed now.

Btrfs also just works with whatever drives of mismatched sizes you throw at it and adding more later is easy. This used to be impossible with zfs pools but I think is a feature now?

The extra storage might be cheaper to come by than h265 hardware (or the cpu grunt to live transcode on the cpu). Depends how much you want to hoard I guess.

Yes you need at least 2 hard drives. You can put video you don’t care about on a single drive, but backups etc should be on a redundant disk array (e.g. btrfs, zfs, other options). And an offsite backup while you are at it.

I have 8gb ram with immich, jellyfin, home assistant, prometheus, grafana and a few other things running, but it is constantly butting up against the ram limit. If you want to add nextcloud etc to the mix then you’ll definitely need more. As it is I had to turn off some services I used to run and I’m looking at upgrading the ram.

I use debian, it’s fine.

I don’t see the comments from here on there…

I downloaded the entirety of wikipedia as of 2024 to use as a reference for “truth” in the post-slop world. Maybe I should grab the 2022 version as well just in case…