Only around 6 / 1,000 shots in the premier league create XG higher than a penalty (so Arsenal had 3/4). And the majority of fouls that lead to a penalty have less than a 10% chance of leading to a goal (including way too many non-deliberate handballs)
Penalties have actually been getting easier with VAR ensuring keepers stay on their lines and the new rules stopping the keepers distracting the taker.
I think it would make the game fairer and more exiting if penalties weren’t an almost guaranteed goal. So I came up with some ideas to reduce the impact of penalties:
- Require the fouled player to take the penalty.
- Offer indirect free kicks for non-deliberate handballs.
- Prohibit stuttered run-ups, making the kicker’s approach more predictable for goalkeepers.
- Move the penalty spot back.
- Use VAR to penalise diving more harshly
Let me know if you agree that penalties are too hard and if so how we could change them?
I’ve also explored more ideas in a new video, consider giving it a watch: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O6elPY8ZvtI.
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Penalties are supposed to discourage tactical fouls to prevent goals. We want them to almost never be worth it. The game is more exciting if attackers are allowed to finish the plays and score open play goals, unless the defenders can stop them by fair means.
Now the discussion about hand ball when there isn’t a clear chance is a tricky part. But I prefer rules to deal with that actual problem rather than making penalties harder to score.
Although penalties discourage tactical fouls, they encourage the attacker to look for contact and go down. Attackers often play for the foul and go down with little contact rather than looking for the finish.
That’s a small downside yes but the upside outweighs that… defenders also need to stay honest and not give unnecessary contact in the box
So many games are decided by dubious penalties. I wouldn’t say it’s a small downside
If you go the reverse way you’re going to be saying “so many games are decided by X cheap tactical foul in a clear goal scoring opp”
Agreed. Would rather the game be decided by a soft pen than defenders get away with tactical fouls in the box. It’s just the lesser of two evils. Obviously ideally it’s decided by neither but if I had to choose between being on the receiving end of simulation from an attacker or something like Barca vs Chelsea 2009 (I’m a Chelsea fan so that’s the first thing that popped into me head), I’m choosing the former. There has to be a stict punishment for denying a goalscoring opportunity. There’s no worse feeling in football than when you’re possibly about to score, the attacker fouls/handballs etc in the box and the defending team don’t end up conceding.
I strongly agree on the third point. Stuttered run-ups should be banned. Not to mention that players look so stupid when they do a weird walkup and miss (looking at you, Zaza).
We suggested in the last thread that non penalty taking players were allowed to enter the box and challenge as soon as the penalty taker began moving towards the ball as a means to stop this.
I’ve always felt that too many occasions don’t merit a free shot on goal from 12yds. Like a foul near the edge of the box when there’s 5+ defenders between them and the goal. I think the occasions aren’t specific enough to merit the change, but it would be ideal imo to see those instances become direct free kicks inside the box instead, allowing a wall since there were defenders there when the infringement occurred.
Michael Cox (The Athletic) suggested having a semi-circle penalty area a la 5-a-side.
This way, any foul within this area would be close enough to goal to justify a penalty.
Then again… If the offensive player is running away from goal i.e. to the touchline, then this idea falls flat.
Then don’t break the rules and foul opponents in your penalty area
If that’s the case, then punish everything in the box. Referees already apply selective reasoning to penalties, as ‘contact not warranting a penalty’ is always used to justify decisions. If it would be a free kick outside of the box (like Hojlunds grab on Rodri) then punish it accordingly.
It isn’t expressly treated any differently
How many dives or simulations do we see in those exact scenarios?
That’s an entirely separate issue.
Not particularly many
Also encourages diving as the rewards are so great. The spirit of the game has been lost.
I think the solution to that problem isn’t harder penalties.
It’s harshly and consistently punishing dives, which we very rarely ever do.
Agreed and not giving soft penalties
What the fuck is xg?
Sounds like a load of wank to me
What the fuck is xg?
Chelsea FC coping mechanism.
I think they should take the penalty wearing beer goggles.
Nah. Place your hand on the ball, run 10 rounds around the ball with your hand still on it and then shoot.
Have you ever made yourself dizzy and tried to kick a football? Might be good craic if they implemented it
I’d just get rid of penalties for anything other than clear denial of a goal scoring opportunity, where the offence prevents the direct opponent shooting.
Why are we giving free shots on goal for a dubious handball that takes place in the far corner of the box when we’ve no idea if it will result in a chance to score.
As others have said, the risk/reward for forcing a penalty is heavily gamed towards the attacker, and just invites all manner of diving and conceited attempts to ‘win’ a penalty. Case in point, the Kane dive vs Malta (?) which he was correctly carded for diving for as an example.
Give them direct free kicks 30 yards from goal, or an indirect fk in the box, for everything else
Why are we giving free shots on goal for a dubious handball that takes place in the far corner of the box when we’ve no idea if it will result in a chance to score.
While I agree with the sentiment, this approach would be far too subjective to apply consistently.
Is this stat incorrect? “the majority of fouls that lead to penalties have less than 10% chance of becoming a goal” if thats true then its doesnt seem like a big problem or that it a garanteed goal
Shrink the penalty area to 12 yards, any foul in the area leads to a direct free kick from the nearest edge on a line from the centre of the goal through the location of the foul. No players allowed in the box except the keeper.
If you foul a player front and centre it’s a slightly harder penalty. Foul them by the touchline and it’s a short corner pretty much, far fairer punishment for the location of the foul.
Hand balls in the box should be indirect free kicks. Having to stutter around with your hands behind your back or having to worry about where your hands are when jumping or doing an awkward movement requiring balance is against the spirit of the game in my opinion.
why would we change something that was designed this way on purpose? I don’t understand the question, it is supposed to be easy and it should discourage fouling in the box
Penalties are meant to almost be a given for a goal, the reasoning is that a clear goal scoring opportunity was taken away from a team, the issue is a lot of the time this isn’t the case.
I’d love to see them punish diving more however.
Football is such a well balanced and fluid game, I don’t get why people want changes made to it. Penalties are perfectly fine, they discourage fouls in an area which teams can score from, an area which is also difficult for teams to advance the ball into and maintain possession in. It’s as much a deterrent for defenders as it is a reward for the attacking team. Football is a notoriously low scoring sport because it’s difficult to score goals, it’s difficult to march the ball up field and craft a shot on goal that leads to a goal, we don’t need less goals, we don’t need defenses being incentivised to snuff out chances illegally because the punishments are less severe.
I’m not sure how much point 1 would work in terms of reducing the number of penalties scored. Keepers at the moment study the opposing penalty taker and know which side they favour etc. Randomising it in some ways makes it harder for the keeper.
I think there should be different rewards for fouls inside the box. Like DOGSO/blatant handball is a pen but some accidental or just slightly clumsy isn’t a pen. Maybe an indirect free kick?