Here’s the process as I understand it (please correct my errors):
- USA likes Israel, a lot for some reason
- “Israel” attacks Iran. This whole thing is being done with the USA’s airplanes though.
- Why does the USA love Israel so much?
- What’s the logic here? Not just the conspiracy. But why now? Why at all? Is Israel gaining something that I’m not seeing? Destabilization the main goal? What’s the USA gaining here?
It’s a state that’s always been hostile toward the US and its interests - both directly and by funding groups that share the same goals as Iran does. Over the past few years, though, the war in Ukraine, Israel’s strike on Iran, the US follow-up bombing of their nuclear sites, and the special Maduro operation have all shown that Russian air-defense systems aren’t much of a threat to Western fighter jets anymore. So they probably figured that if they’re going to do this, now’s the time - while Iran’s at its weakest - instead of waiting around. Countries like North Korea have dodged the same fate by holding Seoul hostage, but Iran doesn’t have that kind of leverage.
NK is somewhat different, they are under chinas umbrella, and would likely upset the CCP and likely economically if they tried to attack.
It seems naive to think that you could accomplish regime change with only air strikes? America tried occupation, tried training Afghanistan, none of that worked.
What the US has often done in the past is provide air support for aligned local rebels on the ground. In this case, though, that rebel force doesn’t really exist, so I figure the reasoning is to show the people of Iran that if you want to take back your country, now’s the time - and we’ll help you. There’s at least some evidence that a big chunk of the Iranian population is fed up with the Islamist government but whether this’ll lead to an uprising or regime change remains to be seen.
I’m in the same boat, I think the USA needs to be working with revolutionaries and a War Powers Resolution needs to be done to limit Trump’s bomb-happy attitude.
Two options that concern me are that the USA and Israel might support the Shah Royalists (EW GROSS, AUTOCRACY) or even worse would by Israel expanding its borders into Iran.