The war in Iran may be over within days, weeks or months, but the lingering impacts will shape our global future. The 10 biggest emitters generate roughly two-thirds of the world’s annual carbon output, and many of them – Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran, the US, Indonesia – are also responsible for exports of fossil fuels that raise global emissions even further. They hold the world’s future in their hands. Whether we emerge set more firmly on a low-carbon path, or retreat yet further into a climate-blighting oil dependency, will depend to a large extent on the choices these countries make in the war’s aftermath.

Whatever the war’s outcome, one thing is certain: the current shock is only a blip. A far bigger crisis looms that will put the cost of living and recessions into an entirely new perspective. If we reach 2C above preindustrial levels – which on current form could be in less than two decades – the economic impact of climate breakdown will be the equivalent of having a new oil war every single year.