Your comment was based entirely in treating gambling as a way of determining the likelihood of Steyer making it to the general, I don’t particularly feel like there should need to be a justification for my opinion when that’s essentially making stuff up, lol. But since you asked, I’m basing that on the fact that around 30% of the vote remains uncounted and actual news agencies haven’t called it yet, which means they think there’s still a possibility. This used to be how we thought about election results when they were being tallied in the distant year of 2024.
It’s not just made up. People placing bets are looking at the voting histories of the precincts with outstanding votes. A 4% chance is not a ~0% chance, so they haven’t called it. But neither is it a 50% chance.
Your comment was based entirely in treating gambling as a way of determining the likelihood of Steyer making it to the general, I don’t particularly feel like there should need to be a justification for my opinion when that’s essentially making stuff up, lol. But since you asked, I’m basing that on the fact that around 30% of the vote remains uncounted and actual news agencies haven’t called it yet, which means they think there’s still a possibility. This used to be how we thought about election results when they were being tallied in the distant year of 2024.
It’s not just made up. People placing bets are looking at the voting histories of the precincts with outstanding votes. A 4% chance is not a ~0% chance, so they haven’t called it. But neither is it a 50% chance.