Latest Precipitation Models Still Seem to Underestimate Risk as ‘1,000-Year’ Rain Events Pummel Texas - Inside Climate News
insideclimatenews.org
The Nueces River of South Texas flowed at twice the rate of Niagara Falls last week during the region’s second flood disaster in two years.

The basic problem is that the precipitation models being used are historical averages, not forward-looking estimates. So they’re always going to lag when constructed that way.