If you know that each option (ABCD) is roughly 25% likely to occur, is it a better bet to guess all Cs (guaranteeing around 25%, probably a fail in most tests), guess 25% of each option randomly (so if there were 20 questions, 5 for each option), or do something in between?

Or what if you know that some option are more likely than others, let’s say C has a higher chance of occurring than ABD. Should you go for all Cs or should you mix in some ABD?

And if you have already completed 50% (or any other amount) of the test already with presumably correct answers, is it better to guess all Cs for the ones you missed or to distribute them so that there are 25% ABCD each (or a different ratio if you know some are more likely on average)

edit: I’m not planning on random guessing every option on any future tests, and certainly not counting every option to ensure a spread out distribution (that would take up lots of time!). It’s just a silly probability question

  • OwOarchist@pawb.socialEnglish
    14·
    11 days ago

    The one pattern that shows up frequently is that repeat answers are less likely than statistics would suggest. For example, if the answer to question #2 is C, then the answer to question #3 is much less likely to be C.

    This is because people designing tests want the answer patterns to look more ‘random’, so they overcompensate trying to avoid streaks of the same answer over and over again. But in a truly random set, streaks would happen from time to time.

    Less of an issue in software-generated tests, though, because the software often handles the randomization and doesn’t have such biases. But for hand-made tests, it’s a fairly reliable trend.