The territory thing is important because the Ukrainian constitution specifically requires that any change in the nations borders be approved by a public referendum in which all citizens can vote. Given that current polling shows about 2 to 4 percent support for such a referendum, such a deal is unlikely to be approved anytime soon.
That number seems a bit unbelievably low to me.
If such a deal could be reached and Russia would get the Donbass and some other areas they already have now, why would 96-98% Ukrainians really not want that if it finally brings this terrible war to an end? After all those regions like the Donbass were already nothing but war-torn cesspools (think MH17!) where most of their remaining inhabitants actually prefer to be under the Russian regime for whatever reason. I don’t think a normal Ukrainian that just wants to live without war will actually care whether they get these regions back. There’s nothing left standing there anyway.
Personally if I were a Ukrainian from Kiev I would definitely not want to risk dying over some distant area full of rebel farmers. Just give them to Putin and see how they like being under his regime (I imagine, not very much). I would just want to live my life again and I wouldn’t care about my country’s borders being a little smaller. It’s just some lines on a map. A matter of ‘national pride’ is not worth dying over. And life in Ukraine is basically at a standstill. People can’t plan for the future, build a career, buy a home etc. That can’t continue forever.
The question of course is whether Putin would actually stop forever or if it would just offer him a respite to build up his forces again for round 2. I would assume it would be most likely. But of course, so could Ukraine. Besides, Putin is getting old. We never thought that after Beria and Cruchev someone like Gorbachev would come but he did. Someone else could stand up after Putin and peace might well last.
But anyway, if they want this to continue, so be it. I just think it’s unlikely Russia will ever be completely beaten back even if NATO did get involved (and it won’t because it would lead to terrible escalation) and who wants another 10 years of war? Yes, Russia was wrong for attacking Ukraine and has committed terrible war crimes but at this point I think a compromise should be reached to stop further loss of life. Ukraine has fought very well to push them back but whatever little Russia has now is not important enough to die over IMO. Lately the victories have been very hard-fought with very nasty losses. Even if the war ended with the current status quo, Ukraine should be really proud of what they have achieved. They would have beaten back the lion.
PS: This might sound harsh sure but I really don’t see what they have to gain by fighting to the bitter end to get that Donbass back.
It’s about the level of support most civilian populations tend to show towards an invading force that’s actively bombing them. How many civlians during the German Blitz do you think would have supported trading Dover to the Nazi’s in exchange for a temporary ceasefire? How about for a second time after the first ceasefire was broken by another ground invasion?
A lot of Ukrainians lived in the occupied regions before been being forced from their homes. Plenty more currently live in the areas that Russia has officially declared as part of its territory but which are currently held by Ukraine. Far from some lines on a map, a very large part of the population have at least one family member who didn’t flee faster than the Russians during the initial attack and who either have been living in fear, had their children taken, or were shot in the street. In both of the first two situations, people tend to be very dedicated to the idea of getting their family currently being held by the Russians back.
None of this is likely to convince people to give the people who did it land it has never held on the promise that in a few years the exact same thing will happen again.
They know that Russia is just another nation with a military about equal to theirs, and that ultimately there are dozens of nations with more powerful militaries on their side.
They also know that Russia cannot do this forever. That the weapons Russia now uses were built in nations that are firmly on Ukraine’s side in this conflict. That Russia’s war chest of foreign extange reserves, pool of manpower that have yet to be conscripted, and fields of stockpiled vehicles continue to get smaller every day. That the Russian military is useing older and older vehicles at the same time that the Ukrainian military is using newer and newer ones.
Russia has been forced to cut its losses on the battlefield before after all, it is neither impossible nor unlikely that it will again.
It’s about the level of support most civilian populations tend to show towards an invading force that’s actively bombing them. How many civlians during the German Blitz do you think would have supported trading Dover to the Nazi’s in exchange for a temporary ceasefire? How about for a second time after the first ceasefire was broken by another ground invasion?
That 2-4% would not be support for Russia, but for a negotiated treaty that involves giving up some territory (how much to be determined of course). It can’t be stated that those 2-4% would just want Russia to win because if that is the case no referendum is needed because the constitution would no longer apply.
And I was thinking of an actual resolution to the conflict with UN support and backed by an international coalition (after all, if Russia is at the negotiating table a security council resolution becomes a possibility too!). Not just a temporary ceasefire.
A lot of Ukrainians lived in the occupied regions before been being forced from their homes. Plenty more currently live in the areas that Russia has officially declared as part of its territory but which are currently held by Ukraine. Far from some lines on a map, a very large part of the population have at least one family member who didn’t flee faster than the Russians during the initial attack and who either have been living in fear, had their children taken, or were shot in the street. In both of the first two situations, people tend to be very dedicated to the idea of getting their family currently being held by the Russians back.
I know it’s terrible, but would you risk your remaining children serving in the army just for some payback? I wouldn’t. It will only lead to more death and it won’t bring those murdered back. I would just want it to be over and for court proceedings and inquiries to start. And for all the abducted children it’s also better for all of this to end sooner rather than later so they can be brought back before they’re brainwashed.
Don’t forget WWII was one of very few that ended in a very decisive victory. Many other wars end up in a stalemate. Like the Korean war. Even the mighty US could not hold on to Afghanistan and things are now as bad as they were before the war. Despite being a massively overpowered force (it was clearly an asymmetric war).
I see this kinda going the same way into a gruelling meatgrinder. I don’t see many human conflicts resolved with one side being the 100% winner. And there is no guarantee that Ukraine will win if it continues. Especially when it comes to meatgrinding wars, Russia has the population and strict regime to keep throwing people into it. It’s basically their MO, it’s how they beat the Germans as well. Ukraine loses less but there are much fewer people to replace them with and also less motivated than at the start (the people really willing to fight already are).
And don’t forget, Russia still has nukes and Ukraine doesn’t. That will always hang over this conflict like a dark cloud. I wouldn’t put it past Putin to use them even if he lost just out of spite. Not saying we should give in to Putin just because of that but we shouldn’t put him in a situation where he has nothing left to lose.
I’m sure many people are more patriottic than me (especially in the US people seem to be very patriottic). Just 2-4% sounds low, that’s all. But anyway, if that is their wish, ok, fair enough. I do hope they will be victorious. I just don’t think the human price will be worth it, and talks should at least start.
None of this is likely to convince people to give the people who did it land it has never held on the promise that in a few years the exact same thing will happen again.
By the way this is of course all part of the negotiation. Right now there is no talk whatsoever, and Ukraine is in a very good position, I could imagine this ending up with Russia walking away with only to the land they control (which is all pretty devastated). Ukraine is starting to withdraw from places now and they might not have such a good negotiating position later. Especially if Trump wins, don’t forget! Nothing can be taken for granted then. NATO could even fall apart as he has suggested.
That number seems a bit unbelievably low to me.
If such a deal could be reached and Russia would get the Donbass and some other areas they already have now, why would 96-98% Ukrainians really not want that if it finally brings this terrible war to an end? After all those regions like the Donbass were already nothing but war-torn cesspools (think MH17!) where most of their remaining inhabitants actually prefer to be under the Russian regime for whatever reason. I don’t think a normal Ukrainian that just wants to live without war will actually care whether they get these regions back. There’s nothing left standing there anyway.
Personally if I were a Ukrainian from Kiev I would definitely not want to risk dying over some distant area full of rebel farmers. Just give them to Putin and see how they like being under his regime (I imagine, not very much). I would just want to live my life again and I wouldn’t care about my country’s borders being a little smaller. It’s just some lines on a map. A matter of ‘national pride’ is not worth dying over. And life in Ukraine is basically at a standstill. People can’t plan for the future, build a career, buy a home etc. That can’t continue forever.
The question of course is whether Putin would actually stop forever or if it would just offer him a respite to build up his forces again for round 2. I would assume it would be most likely. But of course, so could Ukraine. Besides, Putin is getting old. We never thought that after Beria and Cruchev someone like Gorbachev would come but he did. Someone else could stand up after Putin and peace might well last.
But anyway, if they want this to continue, so be it. I just think it’s unlikely Russia will ever be completely beaten back even if NATO did get involved (and it won’t because it would lead to terrible escalation) and who wants another 10 years of war? Yes, Russia was wrong for attacking Ukraine and has committed terrible war crimes but at this point I think a compromise should be reached to stop further loss of life. Ukraine has fought very well to push them back but whatever little Russia has now is not important enough to die over IMO. Lately the victories have been very hard-fought with very nasty losses. Even if the war ended with the current status quo, Ukraine should be really proud of what they have achieved. They would have beaten back the lion.
PS: This might sound harsh sure but I really don’t see what they have to gain by fighting to the bitter end to get that Donbass back.
It’s about the level of support most civilian populations tend to show towards an invading force that’s actively bombing them. How many civlians during the German Blitz do you think would have supported trading Dover to the Nazi’s in exchange for a temporary ceasefire? How about for a second time after the first ceasefire was broken by another ground invasion?
A lot of Ukrainians lived in the occupied regions before been being forced from their homes. Plenty more currently live in the areas that Russia has officially declared as part of its territory but which are currently held by Ukraine. Far from some lines on a map, a very large part of the population have at least one family member who didn’t flee faster than the Russians during the initial attack and who either have been living in fear, had their children taken, or were shot in the street. In both of the first two situations, people tend to be very dedicated to the idea of getting their family currently being held by the Russians back.
None of this is likely to convince people to give the people who did it land it has never held on the promise that in a few years the exact same thing will happen again.
They know that Russia is just another nation with a military about equal to theirs, and that ultimately there are dozens of nations with more powerful militaries on their side.
They also know that Russia cannot do this forever. That the weapons Russia now uses were built in nations that are firmly on Ukraine’s side in this conflict. That Russia’s war chest of foreign extange reserves, pool of manpower that have yet to be conscripted, and fields of stockpiled vehicles continue to get smaller every day. That the Russian military is useing older and older vehicles at the same time that the Ukrainian military is using newer and newer ones.
Russia has been forced to cut its losses on the battlefield before after all, it is neither impossible nor unlikely that it will again.
That 2-4% would not be support for Russia, but for a negotiated treaty that involves giving up some territory (how much to be determined of course). It can’t be stated that those 2-4% would just want Russia to win because if that is the case no referendum is needed because the constitution would no longer apply.
And I was thinking of an actual resolution to the conflict with UN support and backed by an international coalition (after all, if Russia is at the negotiating table a security council resolution becomes a possibility too!). Not just a temporary ceasefire.
I know it’s terrible, but would you risk your remaining children serving in the army just for some payback? I wouldn’t. It will only lead to more death and it won’t bring those murdered back. I would just want it to be over and for court proceedings and inquiries to start. And for all the abducted children it’s also better for all of this to end sooner rather than later so they can be brought back before they’re brainwashed.
Don’t forget WWII was one of very few that ended in a very decisive victory. Many other wars end up in a stalemate. Like the Korean war. Even the mighty US could not hold on to Afghanistan and things are now as bad as they were before the war. Despite being a massively overpowered force (it was clearly an asymmetric war).
I see this kinda going the same way into a gruelling meatgrinder. I don’t see many human conflicts resolved with one side being the 100% winner. And there is no guarantee that Ukraine will win if it continues. Especially when it comes to meatgrinding wars, Russia has the population and strict regime to keep throwing people into it. It’s basically their MO, it’s how they beat the Germans as well. Ukraine loses less but there are much fewer people to replace them with and also less motivated than at the start (the people really willing to fight already are).
And don’t forget, Russia still has nukes and Ukraine doesn’t. That will always hang over this conflict like a dark cloud. I wouldn’t put it past Putin to use them even if he lost just out of spite. Not saying we should give in to Putin just because of that but we shouldn’t put him in a situation where he has nothing left to lose.
I’m sure many people are more patriottic than me (especially in the US people seem to be very patriottic). Just 2-4% sounds low, that’s all. But anyway, if that is their wish, ok, fair enough. I do hope they will be victorious. I just don’t think the human price will be worth it, and talks should at least start.
By the way this is of course all part of the negotiation. Right now there is no talk whatsoever, and Ukraine is in a very good position, I could imagine this ending up with Russia walking away with only to the land they control (which is all pretty devastated). Ukraine is starting to withdraw from places now and they might not have such a good negotiating position later. Especially if Trump wins, don’t forget! Nothing can be taken for granted then. NATO could even fall apart as he has suggested.
How is this perspective different during an invasion of a hostile, genocidal force than simply copping to cowardice and collaboration?