President Biden’s reelection campaign announced Monday that it will aim to flip Florida, targeting the home of former President Trump. Campaign manager Julie Chavez Rodriguez said in a memo that in…

President Biden’s reelection campaign announced Monday that it will aim to flip Florida, targeting the home of former President Trump.

Campaign manager Julie Chavez Rodriguez said in a memo that investing in Florida is part of the Biden campaign’s pathway to 270 electoral votes. Trump won the Sunshine State in 2020 with more than 51 percent, compared to Biden’s 48 percent.

“Make no mistake: Florida is not an easy state to win, but it is a winnable one for President Biden, especially given Trump’s weak, cash-strapped campaign, and serious vulnerabilities within his coalition,” she said.

…

The Biden campaign has also set its sights on flipping North Carolina in November. Trump won North Carolina by a tight margin in 2020, and Biden visited the state as part of his tour of every battleground state last month.

  • givesomefucks@lemmy.worldEnglish
    1712·
    9 months ago

    …

    For those not paying attention:

    In 2020 Biden lost Florida by the largest margin in 20 years, despite polling 3 point ahead before the election.

    Before the election, aggregate polls had Biden in the lead in Florida by up to almost 3 percentage points. Despite this, Trump won Florida by a 3.4-point margin, improving on his margin from 2016, over Hillary Clinton, by 1.2 points; it was the largest margin for any presidential election in Florida since 2004.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election_in_Florida

    Right now trump is up 7 point…

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/florida/

    Florida is not where Biden needs to focus, it’s all those states where just 30k votes got him the election.

    Like, if we’re really stuck with Biden, can his campaign at least act rationally this time?

      • nondescripthandle@lemmy.dbzer0.com
        7·
        9 months ago

        Well if they were fraudulent and nothings changed about who runs the state and the elections then it’s even dumber to allocate resources there, since there’s nothing in place to prevent another fraud.

      • givesomefucks@lemmy.worldEnglish
        126·
        9 months ago

        If trump underperforms as much as Biden did, he’d still win by more than he did in 2020…

        But assuming Florida was fraudulent in 2020, and nothing was done…

        What’s changed?

        Note:

        You got a source for republicans committing large scale fraud in Florida? All I’m seeing is a small amount of idiots that voted twice and obviously got caught…

        Which isn’t enough to make up for the ~370,000 votes Biden lost by.

        • Frog-Brawler@kbin.social
          101·
          9 months ago

          What’s changed

          A lot actually. 2020 and 2024 are not the same political climate. For starters, the 2020 election was pre-insurrection. Since then, Jacksonville voters elected a democrat as their mayor. Abortion and recreational marijuana are going to be on the ballot as a result of citizens organizing; not their elected officials representing them.

          Some people in FL are starting to wake up. It wasn’t so long ago that FL voted blue in the Presidential elections.

          Either way, Biden didn’t need FL to win in 2020; as he displayed in the previous election. This would explain why no money was spent on any large scale investigation into the fraud. The outcome would have remained the same.

          I’m not going to link every unrelated article that comes back after a search for “2020 FL voter fraud.” There’s a ton of projection coming from Tallahassee though.

          • givesomefucks@lemmy.worldEnglish
            57·
            9 months ago

            Some people in FL are starting to wake up

            You say that, But it’s went from +3 Biden, to +7 trump in those 4 years…

            And Jacksonville mayor?

            The Republican candidates combined for roughly 51% of the vote, while the Democrats combined for 48%. This was the highest first-round combined vote share for Democrats in a Jacksonville mayoral race since the 1995 election.[54]

            https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Jacksonville_mayoral_election#Results

            Dems did win the runoff by about 9k votes, but…

            A city going barely blue in no way makes up for statewide polling.

            Biden needs to be shoring up support in the States he barely won that got him into the White House last time, not taking them for granted and attacking Florida in 2024.

            • Skyrmir@lemmy.worldEnglish
              91·
              9 months ago

              Gotta be careful with polling results. By necessity they’re weighted to match the most recent turn out demographics. Which is usually just a bit of an error range. With issues like abortion and weed, the younger vote changes a lot more than the polling algorithm. So the error bars are huge, and adjustments to add accuracy are most likely to just wrong. It’s one of the two major reasons for upsets at the ballot box. The other being the Bradley effect, which could also be very much in play the other direction.

              Consider that the 7% lead Trump has right now is the average from two polls with less than a 4% error, that were 5% apart from each other. So at least one of them is just blatantly wrong, and really the odds are it’s both.

        • Frog-Brawler@kbin.social
          41·
          9 months ago

          Proof that widescale fraud wasn’t investigated in FL? That’s like asking me for proof that my package didn’t arrive at my doorstep.