• The American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), a pro-Israel lobby group, is expected to spend some $100M in the upcoming US election cycle, “taking aim at candidates they deem insufficiently supportive of Israel,” according to a Politico report published Sunday. Politico
• One race AIPAC has had in its crosshairs is that of Dave Min, the Democratic candidate for California’s 47th Congressional District. The seat is currently being held by Rep. Katie Porter (D-Calif.), who is seeking election to the Senate. Dave Min for Congress
• As of Feb. 28, United Democracy Project has spent $4.5M in attack ads targeting Min, according to a report published in Haaretz last week. Haaretz.com
• According to Politico, AIPAC’s biggest targets for the upcoming elections are the so-called “Squad” of progressive House democrats who have called for a cease-fire following Israel’s actions in Gaza after the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks. Politico
• However, Israel’s actions in Gaza have also spurred donations towards the campaign of Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.) — the sole Palestinian American lawmaker in the US — who raised $3.7M for her re-election campaign in the final quarter of 2023. Axios

Pro-establishment narrative:

• AIPAC is overt in its objective to further the security of Israel, especially after the atrocities of Oct. 7. It’s unclear why AIPAC is funding a campaign against Min — he has not been vocal about his positions on Gaza, has never publicly called for a cease-fire, and is endorsed by the majority of California’s Legislative Jewish Caucus — but AIPAC is nonetheless legally focusing on advancing its interests.
  POLITICO

Establishment-critical narrative:

• While AIPAC’s reasons for targeting Dave Min’s campaign are unclear, this sort of power and money being used to punish candidates who criticize Israel is a malign influence on US politics. Any show of support for the plight of the Palestinians may result in candidates losing their seats. AIPAC’s reach into the US political system is a cause for alarm.
  THE AMERICAN PROSPECT

Nerd narrative:

• There’s a 75% chance that the GOP will control the Senate after the 2024 elections, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)