• Reportedly several clans, civil society groups, and factions — including Fatah, which partially runs the West Bank and has been Hamas’ main rival — have emerged to provide security for aid convoys traveling through the Gaza Strip, as social order has largely collapsed. Reuters (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Palestinian and Hamas officials have said that Hamas has been able to rally different groups behind it in an attempt to prevent Israel from building its own local administrative system to run the strip’s civil affairs, which includes aid delivery and security provision. Israeli military officials declined to comment. Reuters (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Israeli media reported in recent weeks that the country is considering utilizing local clans — large families that have influence in certain areas — to build an Israeli-backed civil administration in Gaza. Earlier this month, there were reports of Israel testing a clan-based security approach in northern Gaza, but no details are known regarding its success. Jerusalem Post (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly said that the Palestinian Authority (PA), which is led by Fatah, should not run Gaza’s civil affairs after the war. In contrast, the US has said that only a “revitalized” PA would be capable of running the strip, potentially part of a broader framework toward Palestinian statehood. BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Fighting in Gaza has continued, with Israeli forces saying that fighting in and around Gaza City’s al-Shifa Hospital was ongoing Thursday after they launched a raid into the complex Monday. The military claimed it killed and detained dozens of militants, including Hamas commanders, though this was denied by Hamas and couldn’t be independently verified. The Times of Israel
• Though discussions regarding Gaza’s post-war future have remained opaque, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Wednesday that the US submitted a draft resolution to the UN Security Council calling “for an immediate cease-fire” in Gaza that’s “tied to the release” of hostages held by Hamas. Axios

Pro-Palestine narrative:

• Israel’s plans to create a “clan-based” administration in Gaza is absurd and doomed to failure. If anything, Hamas will simply utilize these societal elements to its benefit, easily sidelining other actors that try to make inroads with Gaza’s clans, namely the PA. Indeed, Israeli plans to either establish its own clan-based system or have the PA do it have already failed, and Israel must accept responsibility for the disaster it created.
  PALESTINE CHRONICLE

Pro-establishment narrative:

• Though there’s surely merit in investigating different possibilities for Gaza’s post-war civil administration, the primary goal must be to facilitate the return of the PA to Gaza. With the vacuum left by Hamas’ departure from large swaths of the strip, the only other Palestinian political faction with the experience and infrastructure to manage the strip’s affairs is the PA. The US will always support Israel’s security, but Israel must be willing to compromise so this situation can be remedied.
  THE HILL

Pro-Israel narrative:

• A purely clan-based approach to running Gaza would likely fail, but that doesn’t mean the idea doesn’t possess merit. Clans could play an important role in Gaza’s post-war civil administration with the right structures and context to support them. Israel should continue probing this idea to see if there are ways to make it work because stabilizing Gaza after the war will be the next large battle.
  JERUSALEM POST (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Nerd narrative:

• There’s a 67% chance that Israel will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on Jan. 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)