Last month, Alberta didn’t just announce it had transitioned entirely off coal as an energy source; the province kicked the fossil fuel six years ahead of a wildly ambitious schedule. The scale of achievement this represents defies exaggeration—and contains a warning for oil fans everywhere. […] what happened to coal is coming for oil next.
Virtually every major analyst that isn’t an oil company (and even some of them, like BP) now expects global demand for oil to peak around 2030, if not sooner; McKinsey, Rystad Energy, DNV, and the International Energy Agency all agree. This places Canada in a uniquely vulnerable position. Oil is Canada’s biggest export by a mile, a vital organ of our economy: we sold $123 billion worth of it in 2022 (cars came in second, at just under $30 billion). Three quarters of that oil is exported as bitumen—the most expensive, emissions-heavy form of petroleum in the market and therefore the hardest to sell. That makes us incredibly sensitive to fluctuations in global demand. Think of coal as the canary in our oil patch.
I mean despite the oil companies whining about how important they are oil represents what, 3.5 percent of Canada’s GDP?
Yes and no. The article states that oil represents 120,000 jobs in Alberta. If we shut-down the industry today, would we lose that many jobs? No, far more.
What is the economy of Fort MacMurray without oil? There are probably 2 million jobs directly funded by the oil industry.
To be clear, I am not advocating for oil. I agree that we need to be moving the economy off it. Let’s not understate the problem though or we will do nothing.