Third post tonight but I’m posting anyway.
Personally, I don’t see how the Palestinian resistance has any chance of winning this conflict unless Hezbollah and/or a foreign nation like Lebanon, Syria, or Egypt for instance joins in.
There’s a tendency for video game thought with things like this. The conflict doesn’t have to end in a military confrontation where the blue units kill all the red ones. Vietnam didn’t really directly beat America in the field, they won by being tenacious and sticking it out beyond the occupation’s patience.
The entity has to exterminate its opposition to ‘win’. Palestinians just have to resist until they give up. It’s kinda trite and there is a real risk that things get very bad, I won’t deny that, but only one side needs a total victory here. Any occupier who throws in the towel and goes back home, anyone who decides not to come because of the risk, any negotiation, these are all victories for a resistance movement.
And things unravel in ways we don’t anticipate. Things look impossible until they don’t.
The entity has to exterminate its opposition to ‘win’.
Isn’t that exactly what the entity is attempting to do right now? By the constant air strikes against Gaza. By blockading vital supplies like food, water, and electricity. It has been just a few days, and already over a 1000 people were killed. What is that if not an extermination campaign against the people of Gaza?
I don’t want to be a defeatist. But it seems that if the resistance can’t find a way to make that stop, things don’t look well…
For sure, they have some sort of plan. With all the planning and preparation that went into the operation, for sure they have also considered how the entity will retaliate, and prepared accordingly. But I don’t know what their plan is now. Reading through the news thread on here doesn’t make things look hopeful. Whatever the resistance is going to do now, I hope they succeed.
(Disclaimer that I’m an outsider who has to draw conclusions on limited information. Palestinian comrades, please correct me if I go the facts wrong.)
It’s bleak for sure, a lot of people are likely to die in retaliation. I am not minimizing this, but it’s been the case my entire life. And somehow in spite of intensive surveillance, a siege and indiscriminate airstrikes Palestinian capacity to fight has actually improved in this time frame.
Look at this in light of previous operations. This is by far the most successful counterattack they have ever pulled off. They are getting better.
And they have nowhere else to go. The entity would have to forcibly expel or industrially eradicate them with like, camps and gas and shit. And I don’t think the rest of the Arab world would just watch them do that. We’ve seen harsh reprisals before. That tactic isn’t working in Palestine, this operation demonstrates that conclusively.
the problem is that the very existence of palestinians is a threat to the israeli ruling ideology of zionism. ultimately, vietnam was a country half a world away from america that had very little to do with it. losing vietnam was embarrassing to the american leadership, but it didn’t call the ideological basis of their power into question.
How are the Israelis going to just go home? The U.S. was able to go home in Vietnam because it was fighting in a place that wasn’t theirs, which is a luxury the South Vietnamese didn’t have. To the Israelis, occupied Palestine is their home, albeit stolen.
I mean, Bibi is from Philadelphia. The entire point of the settler project is they are bringing people in from elsewhere. A ton of these people are Americans or Canadians etc. There are second and third generation folks now but a lot of them still have roots in the imperial core where they moved in from.
remove the settlers, or honestly if they’re willing to put in the work for reparations they can stay
how did the french go home from “french indochina”?
Drawn out border conflict on multiple fronts. Same way apartheid South Africa was defeated and Namibia won it’s independence.
Only realistic way that’s happening is if Hezbollah gets involved.
Lebanese government, I honestly don’t know too much about them, but I don’t think they’re going to get involved.
Egypt I heard got bombed recently just for trying to send humanitarian aid to Gaza, they just backed down, and they are too friendly to the West, they aren’t getting involved.
Syria is in a civil war.
Jordan I think is too neutral as well.
Iran and North Korea probably would kick Israel’s ass if they could but they’re too far away to do anything outside of nuking them in the case of the DPRK.
Outside of Hezbollah, it looks pretty bleak unless Palestine can successfully liberate itself.
Hezbollah is already involved.
Thank you for writing this. It has reduced my anxiety somewhat.
I know that the Palestinians need more than that but at least this betters their odds.
At the very least, the Palestinians have gravely hurt the reputation of the West as a whole and are another blow to its hegemony.
Ukraine, Nigeria, Gabon and so on. The pressure is mounting and the economies of Europe are declining.
That being said, the road to freedom for the Palestinians is long and this is just one of many steps
I think it’s good to guess that the group that planned this operation for years has some sketch of a plan moving forward.
I honestly have no idea.
I don’t think the zionist state will ever be able to return to the status quo from before, so it’s either winning or complete annihilation. I hope Palestine wins.
If it all works out well, I want to hear the full story of how they did it all
To thwart Mossad must have taken incredible measures…imperial partisans will have much to learn from them
they probably have a plan, but that plan could depend on other parties doing things that they might not do and they’re turbo-fucked if it falls apart.
they’re fucked anyway and so was the rest of palestine, but it’ll be much worse in the short term either way.
In terms of some kind grand treaty and international recognition? Not anytime soon. Things are rarely so clear-cut.
However, a lot of occupiers left Israel after these attacks. Those are concrete wins because that is exactly what should be happening. Palestine has little left to lose, this is their home and they are already in concentration camps. Many Israelis have other citizenships and can go back home anytime they want. Who do you think is inclined to fight harder.
I think a better question might be can Israel ever actually win this, and the answers to that is no. Not without a genocide even worse than anything we have ever seen to date. There will always be people willing to fight against the invaders.
Arab countries apply pressure
When Iran, Syria, Lebanon and Hezbollah join. Hezbollah already did.
Yep, this has to expand wider. The myth of their invincibility has already been broken. If the puppet regimes in the Gulf fall, that might also be a positive step. And Palestine is an issue close to many people’s hearts there.
How does the presence of the American Carrier group influence this? In its role as a deterrent to surrounding nations that might want to get involved.
Idk but I think Hezbollah has promised to bomb US military bases if they get involved.
Has Hezbollah done anything besides their potshots over the border?
Yes, they shelled and killed multiple Israeli soldiers and destroyed multiple military vehicles
I can only see them winning with direct intervention from Iran and Hezbollah. Hezbollah uses this opportunity to launch an attack from the north. Iran starts sending barrages of missiles towards Israel’s electrical grid and military targets, and Palestinians use guerilla tactics to distract them. The rest of the Middle East should embargo Israel during this conflict.
This actually seems like the perfect opportunity to attack, since the US army is drained of resources. The US strategic oil reserve is also pretty low, so if the US starts making threats, Iran can simply close the straight of Ormuz and the price of oil would skyrocket overnight. But I don’t think any of this will happen.
Why not?
Just to be clear, is your question why doesn’t Iran send “missile barrages” intended to secure the military defeat and destruction of a nuclear armed power which hates them?
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Iran would never do that though because Israel maintains an undeclared nuclear weapons capability.
Jihad will win
Oppo has spoken 🙏🏼
the Opporacle has decreed that Palestine will be free
True
there needs to be some kind coalition between Gulf States (and preferably Russia) i feel like. but that is unlikely since they are American client/puppet states. Lebanon probably doesn’t war with Israel because of its internal issues. Egypt is ruled by an American puppet. Syria hasn’t mentioned anything I think and they too have their own set of internal issues.
I feel like Russia getting involved would be one of the quickest ways for this to escalate into nuclear war unfortunately.
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I hope there’s something they can do that won’t escalate things in a way that doesn’t lead to Gaza or Iran getting nuked.
I don’t think it’s possible without another Arab-Israeli war, or some kind of collapse of Israel’s military command. Unfortunately I think that strategically this latest attack is going to go down in history as a failure, because despite showing Hamas’ ability to win tactically unless something major changes I think the most significant political effect that this attack will have is galvanizing Israeli politics further against the Palestinians.
Now, that said, this could be just the first week of a new era of Palestinian resistance. If that’s the case then the situation in Gaza is going to become not unlike Stalingrad in WW2, with open warfare between a besieged population and their attackers, and if it goes on long enough Hamas will pull concessions out of Israel eventually, but it’s impossible to know whether that will be months or years down the line or whether it will be pro-Palestinian leadership that gets those concessions or some kind of collaborationist movement that arises and usurps Hamas.
And throughout this, more and more settlers will likely leave. All but the most fascistic ones dedicated to colonialism.
That is, unless Israel begins to prevent their own citizenry from escaping.
They need to capture Israeli hardware and recruit the Arab residents within Israel to enlarge their fighting force.
palestinians can’t win because there’s too much money and propagandized people to ever let them; instead the best they can hope for is survival like the many other oppressed people before them and at least for now
isreals entire army is 300k, the combined might of hamas, syria, lebanon and hezbollah will easily trump this and they know it; they can only dedicate about 100k troops to each front and they are out numbered on all of them.
Isreal lost many conflicts as recently as 2006 to Lebanon/Hezbollah so dont be so sure.
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I’ll be real: As long as Israel is getting the funding they are, I don’t really see a Palestinian path to victory.
People are bringing up Vietnam and how they won by death by a thousand cuts, but the circumstances in this conflict are significantly, I’d even dare say dramatically different. That’s not to say Palestine is completely helpless to fight back, but even after this flare-up the deck is still heavily in Israel’s favor here. One has near-total control over the other’s food, water, electricity and has air superiority, while the other doesn’t.
It all comes down to the money flow: Weaken or even destroy that, and suddenly the odds change drastically.
