Zillow projects that U.S. home prices will fall 1.7% between March 2025 and March 2026. Last month, Zillow economists still thought prices would rise this year.
The US Housing bubble has popped.
Everyone remembers how well that went last time, right?
The housing market almost doubled prices during COVID. I don’t think it’s unexpected that prices would settle down and readjust in the years following.
Except it is unexpected, if you ask basically 90% of realtors, and the vast majority of analysts following the housing market, untill… well basically right now.
The whole schtick is that houses prices always go up, never down, that price growth may slow but never actually go negative.
I pointed this out to my other reply to you, but uh yeah, the fundamentals have been blaring more and more warning signs for years, but perception is key, so the vast majority of people who report market projections are incentivized to paint a far too rosy picture…
… And then reality becomes too difficult to ignore, and perceptions shift rapidly.
Zillow, a month ago, was projecting a modest, nationwide growth of 0.8%.
Now, a month later, Trump actually does the stuff he repeatedly said he was going to do, but the market just assumed he was either bullshitting or had a more robust and thought out plan…
And suddenly the delusions are eviscerated, and a month later, 0.8% gets moved downward -2.5% to a -1.7% projection.
These people did not see this coming until it smacked them in the face.
Almost no one was projecting an actual decline, publically, untill very recently, and if you were projecting a decline 6 months ago, you would have either been dismissed or laughed at by the experts.