Have a similar situation with A/A/A/BA on one of my papers. The chances are pretty good, why not. However it is worth noting that we should try to answer the questions of all reviewers, even if the score is good. My friend has a story from some past AISTATS where good reviews lowered their scores because their questions were not answered during the rebuttal.

The strange thing in my case is that BR says mostly positive things about the paper in the review text, similarly to BA reviews. Maybe we can sway BR to BA, then the situation should be pretty good.

BA/BR/BA/BA/A. How good are the chances?