There will never be an AI crash. Economical crashes happen on the basis of “over-promise under-deliver”, usually from industries that are heavily subsidised by either government or private investments. Once it becomes clear that the promises will never be met, the cash-flow stops, government funding dries out and investors pull out. The only thinh you’re left with is all the RND results until that point and a bunch unrealised ideas.
AI is different in that sense. Even if it crashes, the data centers aren’t going to poof out of existence. You will still have all the hardware, data, know-how and infrastructure in place. That’s why the development feels so rapid, everybody tries to gobble up as much “free” money and resources before another technology will shift the focus away from AI (solid state batteries for example).
And as for the government stopping to fund AI. They will never do that. AI is our generations nuclear bomb. Any government that fails to develop this technology fast enough will lose the arms race in a war of information. Those data centers aren’t just there to show your grandma AI slop on Facebook. They are the backbone of an unpreceded mass surveilance infrastructure which is in essence the highest goal of any government. The government funding will never stop because the goals of advertising companies perfectly align with the goals of government agencies. While one dictates you what to buy and what services to use, the other dictates you who to vote for and who o be angry at. Since the government makes itself more and more reliable on a smaller andsmaer set of mega corporations, there will be a point in to time where those two will become completely indistinguishble. As in corporate policy will essentially be law.
People that say “The crash is about to happen!” don’t realise that this is not an exceptional situation, this is just the new reality.
I agree there won’t be a big “poof!” Crash where they disappear and it’s like it didn’t happen.
There will be a consolidation though, at least that’s the plan. They know there’s no need for four or more versions of this technology so the scheme is to be the last one standing.
That transition will look a bit like a crash. Maybe more of a flop.
There’s also not a lot of broader exposure to the risk yet as ownership is very limited. The initial public offerings that are coming will both generate investment as well as spread the risk to the public via banks, pension funds and the like.
That’ll change the dynamics of who is willing to spend resources and take risks softening the flop.
I think most people who say that it will crash are referring to the stock market crash, not that it will cause LLMs or other related products to go away.
The dotcom bubble and crash happened, and there were still plenty of survivors from that time. It did have negative economic impact, though. Many people lost jobs and homes, businesses went bankrupt and were bought out.
The LLM bubble could pop in a similar way. The cat is out of the bag, it’s not going away. But that doesn’t mean it can’t cause an economic crash or be a bubble.
There will never be an AI crash. Economical crashes happen on the basis of “over-promise under-deliver”, usually from industries that are heavily subsidised by either government or private investments. Once it becomes clear that the promises will never be met, the cash-flow stops, government funding dries out and investors pull out. The only thinh you’re left with is all the RND results until that point and a bunch unrealised ideas.
AI is different in that sense. Even if it crashes, the data centers aren’t going to poof out of existence. You will still have all the hardware, data, know-how and infrastructure in place. That’s why the development feels so rapid, everybody tries to gobble up as much “free” money and resources before another technology will shift the focus away from AI (solid state batteries for example).
And as for the government stopping to fund AI. They will never do that. AI is our generations nuclear bomb. Any government that fails to develop this technology fast enough will lose the arms race in a war of information. Those data centers aren’t just there to show your grandma AI slop on Facebook. They are the backbone of an unpreceded mass surveilance infrastructure which is in essence the highest goal of any government. The government funding will never stop because the goals of advertising companies perfectly align with the goals of government agencies. While one dictates you what to buy and what services to use, the other dictates you who to vote for and who o be angry at. Since the government makes itself more and more reliable on a smaller andsmaer set of mega corporations, there will be a point in to time where those two will become completely indistinguishble. As in corporate policy will essentially be law.
People that say “The crash is about to happen!” don’t realise that this is not an exceptional situation, this is just the new reality.
I agree there won’t be a big “poof!” Crash where they disappear and it’s like it didn’t happen.
There will be a consolidation though, at least that’s the plan. They know there’s no need for four or more versions of this technology so the scheme is to be the last one standing.
That transition will look a bit like a crash. Maybe more of a flop.
There’s also not a lot of broader exposure to the risk yet as ownership is very limited. The initial public offerings that are coming will both generate investment as well as spread the risk to the public via banks, pension funds and the like.
That’ll change the dynamics of who is willing to spend resources and take risks softening the flop.
I think most people who say that it will crash are referring to the stock market crash, not that it will cause LLMs or other related products to go away.
The dotcom bubble and crash happened, and there were still plenty of survivors from that time. It did have negative economic impact, though. Many people lost jobs and homes, businesses went bankrupt and were bought out.
The LLM bubble could pop in a similar way. The cat is out of the bag, it’s not going away. But that doesn’t mean it can’t cause an economic crash or be a bubble.