Pro-Russian telegram groups have recently started speculating about a potential Ukrainian offensive into Zaporozhye by Ukraine.
This was originally claimed by a telegram mil blogger called ‘romanov light’. He claimed Russia would mobilize in may, which obviously didn’t happen, so take this with a BIG pinch of salt.
If this is real, then we’ll probably see a repeat of the 2023 summer offensive, but worse
Russia is basically taking a steamroller approach to this. It’s a slow and steady push that grinds up the AFU until it collapses. Russia seems to have found the level of attrition where the west is willing to feed their weapons into Ukraine at a rate that Russia is able to destroy with relative ease. This has led to stuff like shell shortages in the west now because the rate of consumption is outpacing the rate of production here. Once they ran through the stockpiles, they’re not able to produce more quickly enough.
If Russia’s response was more aggressive it could’ve conceivably rallied the west to either have sent much larger packages of weapons all at once or to even put boots on the ground. I think that’s the scenario Russia was aiming to avoid. As long as things keep going the way they are, the overall balance of power keeps shifting in Russia’s favor.
Amusingly, the whole narrative about Russian military being incompetent and weak that we were hearing at the start of the war played in Russia’s favor. It convinced western public that Russia wasn’t a serious threat, and most people expected it to fold quickly. I suspect this includes a lot of people in the decision making process as well. They drank their own koolaid about Russia being a gas station with nukes, and thought if they just blow hard enough, then it will collapse.
The west is slowly starting to realize their folly now, but it’s too late. Western economies are suffering, the industry to produce weapons on the necessary scale doesn’t exist, and the Ukrainian army is now spent. So, Russia can just keep advancing methodically until the AFU collapses.
The other aspect here is the Global South. Russia is going out of its way to show that it is being reasonable and restrained, and each time the west does a new provocation it shows the rest of the world who really wants this war to escalate. I think that Ukraine and Gaza have forever shifted the global political landscape. BRICS is becoming a serious counter to the west economically, meanwhile Russia, China, DPRK, and Iran are forming a strong military alliance to counter NATO.
So, while I agree that the west is run by the worst kinds of psychopaths, it’s pretty clear that these people lack any genuine intelligence, and they’ve been comprehensively outplayed by their adversaries.