It’s not out of realm of possibility, and it would be a serious provocation of that’s the case. That said, this obviously doesn’t change anything strategically, and I expect Russia will likely just ignore this. It’s pretty clear that Russia has been dictating the pace of the war for a while now, and the fact that they haven’t escalated yet indicates that they’re content with the current state of things.
I imagine that Russia would prefer avoiding a direct conflict with NATO, and the war with the west is relegated to economic and geopolitical spheres instead. However, if Estonia is responsible for the strike that would indicate that at least some western countries are trying to provoke further escalation.
I agree with this take. Also Russia is not obligated to retaliate in the same way. They can respond asymmetrically by causing problems for Estonia in other ways and at a time of their choosing.
I think the people on the “pro-Russian” side who are always at the slightest provocation calling for some big escalation need to cool their jets, that kind of emotional response is just what the West wants.
They do these things because they aren’t getting anywhere on the actual battlefield, in either the physical or the economic dimension. Psychological operations of little real consequence are all they have left.
Exactly, Russia understands the reason for the provocations perfectly well and there’s no reason for Russia to react to these provocations. And completely agree that Russia has lots of options for asymmetric response.
It’s not out of realm of possibility, and it would be a serious provocation of that’s the case. That said, this obviously doesn’t change anything strategically, and I expect Russia will likely just ignore this. It’s pretty clear that Russia has been dictating the pace of the war for a while now, and the fact that they haven’t escalated yet indicates that they’re content with the current state of things.
I imagine that Russia would prefer avoiding a direct conflict with NATO, and the war with the west is relegated to economic and geopolitical spheres instead. However, if Estonia is responsible for the strike that would indicate that at least some western countries are trying to provoke further escalation.
I agree with this take. Also Russia is not obligated to retaliate in the same way. They can respond asymmetrically by causing problems for Estonia in other ways and at a time of their choosing.
I think the people on the “pro-Russian” side who are always at the slightest provocation calling for some big escalation need to cool their jets, that kind of emotional response is just what the West wants.
They do these things because they aren’t getting anywhere on the actual battlefield, in either the physical or the economic dimension. Psychological operations of little real consequence are all they have left.
Exactly, Russia understands the reason for the provocations perfectly well and there’s no reason for Russia to react to these provocations. And completely agree that Russia has lots of options for asymmetric response.