Fulham were flying last season and finished 10th in the Premier League which was beyond impressive as many thought that they would be close to the relegation zone at the beginning of last season.
However, since around March this year (still the 2022-23) season, Fulham’s performances have nose-dived. Does anyone know why?
Just scratching through the numbers, their goal output has been horrific mainly, but why is that? And are there any other glaring weaknesses in the team?
Yep, I remember reading an article before this season tipping them to struggle, based on it being unlikely they overperform their underlying numbers two seasons running.
It’s almost as if xg is a pretty shitty stat to base things off
Or alternatively their performance this season is demonstrating it’s a good one.
I don’t know how that’s the takeaway you’ve pulled from that. xG stats suggested they were overperforming last year and they would be unlikely to do as well this season. So far, that appears to be correct. I’m not a lover of expected ‘x’ stats but the models are working as intended in this instance.
Funny, this gave me the opposite impression actually.
As in, xg provided clarity as to why they haven’t been performing as well as last season, because they aren’t outpacing their xg as much as they were.
I could be totally wrong, and that’s fine, that was just my honest first impression of the situation.
I think reducing games to xG is a really reductive way of applying stats. If xG and actual goals is unbalanced over 38 games then there’s something it’s missing.
I’ll step off my soapbox now.