As the war on Iran enters its ninth month, the price of oil continues to rise, but the crude itself is no longer the best measure of the economic troubles.
Nicely written as always. Admittedly, the squeeze has not been felt very much here in Europe so far (I don’t drive so have no notion of increased gas prices), but I reckon that will change during winter. With no end in sight to the western aggression in west Asia, it will be interesting to see how the things will go come new years in, especially, Germany and UK who are very fuel/export dependent.
My hope is that this is a turning point for EU where they see that
Now that oil is scarce, countries that have chosen non-alignment are the ones that are best positioned to weather the crisis.
but I fear (and am almost certain) that they are structurally in way to deep to even consider diversifying and approaching China. Will be interesting to see if a few breakout nations (like Spain) can at least muddle the waters a little.
I recently read some transcripts and reports from the original Bandung conference and was saddened by the world we could’ve had. Now instead the Sahel states and BRICS have to start all over, in even more hostile conditions than what they had in the 50s. Well, at least now there is no delusion regarding the lengths the imperialists are willing to go, and they have a manufacturing powerhouse in China which hopefully can accelerate their development at record pace.
The biggest issue isn’t gas because that’s an elastic type of commodity. The real problem is diesel because it’s inelastic. For example, a farmer can’t just plow half a field or a truck can’t deliver goods part way. And that’s where the real problem lies, there’s a significant shortfall of diesel, and there’s no way to make that up . Europe in particular is in a really bad situation because the US just forced Europe to release diesel reserves to stabilize market prices before midterms. But once that’s gone, and prices actually start climbing that’s when the trouble starts.
And I think nations like Spain will have difficulty, these are the countries I put in the Western bloc that’s making ideological decisions. The countries I expect to adopt are in the Global South.
Oh yeah, Australia is particularly screwed because it has practically no refining capacity, and imports most diesel from occupied Korean refineries as I recall. So, when supply gets tight, they’re obviously going to hold back exports, and there’s really nothing else available.
If we stopped allying with the great satan maybe we could get some more easily. And shit maybe nows a good time to i dunno explore renewables and electrify more if possible
Yeah seriously, maybe the energy crisis will get people to rethink things. Amusingly, the US is now contemplating a full retreat from Asia which would involve abandoning occupied Korea, Japan, and Australia. Should that happen, then there would be a pretty rapid political shift in Australia I would imagine.
Europe in particular is in a really bad situation because the US just forced Europe to release diesel reserves to stabilize market prices before midterms. But once that’s gone, and prices actually start climbing that’s when the trouble starts.
Of for sure, I just spoke personally. Even then, prices have continued to rise so much since the pandemic that it’s still difficult to know what is the cause of incremental inflation or fluctuations of diesel prices. I imagine that the conflict will be felt much more as reserves dry up.
The countries I expect to adopt are in the Global South.
Definitely, I can’t help but feel that our current decade is the deciding shift and that the decades to come really will belong to the “third world” this time. We’ll see on the 100 year mark of the Bandung conference how well we fared, but I am cautiously optimistic.
Admittedly, the squeeze has not been felt very much here in Europe so far
It absolutely has where i live. It is especially bad for people who commute to work. The gas prices are really painful and people don’t realize it yet but it’s going to get a lot worse. In Germany, public transportation is not always a viable option if you live outside of the big cities.
And the even bigger problem will be felt come winter, when many people will be at risk of not being able to afford to pay for heating.
public transportation is not always a viable option if you live outside of the big cities.
Yea that’s the case here as well. I am just fortunate to live in an apartment in a city with good personal finances and own no car, so I am sheltered from most expenses that might rise as immediate consequence of the war: gas and mortgage. I feel like people have grown indifferent to the ever rising costs since the pandemic. In my conversations with people I mostly get shrugs or surprised looks when I ask if they think the current Iran war is a driving factor behind costs. So it was more this sentiment I was thinking of.
Nicely written as always. Admittedly, the squeeze has not been felt very much here in Europe so far (I don’t drive so have no notion of increased gas prices), but I reckon that will change during winter. With no end in sight to the western aggression in west Asia, it will be interesting to see how the things will go come new years in, especially, Germany and UK who are very fuel/export dependent.
My hope is that this is a turning point for EU where they see that
but I fear (and am almost certain) that they are structurally in way to deep to even consider diversifying and approaching China. Will be interesting to see if a few breakout nations (like Spain) can at least muddle the waters a little.
I recently read some transcripts and reports from the original Bandung conference and was saddened by the world we could’ve had. Now instead the Sahel states and BRICS have to start all over, in even more hostile conditions than what they had in the 50s. Well, at least now there is no delusion regarding the lengths the imperialists are willing to go, and they have a manufacturing powerhouse in China which hopefully can accelerate their development at record pace.
The biggest issue isn’t gas because that’s an elastic type of commodity. The real problem is diesel because it’s inelastic. For example, a farmer can’t just plow half a field or a truck can’t deliver goods part way. And that’s where the real problem lies, there’s a significant shortfall of diesel, and there’s no way to make that up . Europe in particular is in a really bad situation because the US just forced Europe to release diesel reserves to stabilize market prices before midterms. But once that’s gone, and prices actually start climbing that’s when the trouble starts.
And I think nations like Spain will have difficulty, these are the countries I put in the Western bloc that’s making ideological decisions. The countries I expect to adopt are in the Global South.
Meanwhile recently found out my countey australia is the worlds largest importer of diesel.
Not per capata but in actual terms. We have a lot of farming and mining that relies on it
Oh yeah, Australia is particularly screwed because it has practically no refining capacity, and imports most diesel from occupied Korean refineries as I recall. So, when supply gets tight, they’re obviously going to hold back exports, and there’s really nothing else available.
If we stopped allying with the great satan maybe we could get some more easily. And shit maybe nows a good time to i dunno explore renewables and electrify more if possible
Yeah seriously, maybe the energy crisis will get people to rethink things. Amusingly, the US is now contemplating a full retreat from Asia which would involve abandoning occupied Korea, Japan, and Australia. Should that happen, then there would be a pretty rapid political shift in Australia I would imagine.
Of for sure, I just spoke personally. Even then, prices have continued to rise so much since the pandemic that it’s still difficult to know what is the cause of incremental inflation or fluctuations of diesel prices. I imagine that the conflict will be felt much more as reserves dry up.
Definitely, I can’t help but feel that our current decade is the deciding shift and that the decades to come really will belong to the “third world” this time. We’ll see on the 100 year mark of the Bandung conference how well we fared, but I am cautiously optimistic.
We’re living through weeks when decades happen to be sure.
It absolutely has where i live. It is especially bad for people who commute to work. The gas prices are really painful and people don’t realize it yet but it’s going to get a lot worse. In Germany, public transportation is not always a viable option if you live outside of the big cities.
And the even bigger problem will be felt come winter, when many people will be at risk of not being able to afford to pay for heating.
Yea that’s the case here as well. I am just fortunate to live in an apartment in a city with good personal finances and own no car, so I am sheltered from most expenses that might rise as immediate consequence of the war: gas and mortgage. I feel like people have grown indifferent to the ever rising costs since the pandemic. In my conversations with people I mostly get shrugs or surprised looks when I ask if they think the current Iran war is a driving factor behind costs. So it was more this sentiment I was thinking of.