Inflation risk is more likely from a US China trade war or conflict escalations in eastern Europe or the middle east. The interest rate was a pretty blunt instrument to combat COVID induced inflation; but it’s the only one the Fed has.

I’m concerned the stock markets are already overvalued; (edit: S&P500 used for these numbers) up 17% YTD over 85% on a 5 year mark… that’s borderline bubble; throwing more cheap money at it isn’t what we need at the moment; a more cautious return to lower rates is called for in my opinion. Give the markets time to digest and use the meeting minutes to signal likely further declines.

Larger cut than I think was appropriate at this time. Employment is cooling, but still positive. I wonder if some of the unpublished leading indicators show a more bearish picture…

A photo op that would be so easy to arrange…

Check out Fez if you haven’t already. Also Tunic does a great job of starting out basic & breaking precedent.

I’m enjoying what they released this year too. Beautiful People is now on my regular playlist.

There’S always time to take a break and catch your breath. You have sick days and personal days for a reason; use those to center yourself rather than running yourself into the ground.

You said above you’ve previously switched jobs; use that as a baseline to know that worst case isn’t crash and burn, but finding a new job (just like you’ve done several times before). If you’re killing yourself for a big corporate position… that’s a terrible reason to burn yourself out.

Refocus to something else you enjoy in life (family, friends, hobbies, whatever…). Use the CBT techniques that worked for you before. First just catch your breath, then start working back towards a better state. You did it before, you can do it again!

Hackers and hobbiests will persist despite any economics. Much of what they do I don’t see AI replacing, as AI creates based off of what it “knows”, which is mostly things it has previously ingested.

We are not (yet?) at the point where LLM does anything other than put together code snippets it’s seen or derived. If you ask it to find a new attack vector or code dissimilar to something it’s seen before the results are poor.

But the counterpoint every developer needs to keep in mind: AI will only get better. It’s not going to lose any of the current capabilities to generate code, and very likely will continue to expand on what it can accomplish. It’d be naive to assume it can never achieve these new capabilities… The question is just when & how much it costs (in terms of processing and storage).

The reality of Texas green energy is so detached from the political rhetoric from politicians… The state making the most wind energy has leaders in the capital demonizing it while the state finances (and citizens) clearly benefit. I wish the voters of Texas paid more attention and called out such obvious gaslighting :(

Making your own sirracha mayo! You can adjust exactly how much spice you want in it. Or add in other flavors as desired… I once had to do a Gochujang mayo when out of sirracha, it was different but still good.

https://www.usda.gov/media/blog/2017/01/13/cost-raising-child

Usually these costs are including education and childcare. In the US you can easily expect to pay around $1K / Month for full time child care between the ages of 6 months and 5 years (when they’ll start public school). Here’s a recent summary for major cities in Texas reflecting that amount: https://tootris.com/edu/blog/parents/child-care-in-texas-can-cost-up-to-10000/

That’s over $40K just in childcare costs before entering school. Now, many people don’t have to pay this because they have family (or a non-working spouse) who assist; but from a cost perspective it’s fair to include.

Add on to that food, clothing and such… between ages it’s easy to see how some estimates can reach over $200K through age 18.

The Ola one looks pretty dang nice; if it were available in the US I’d probably buy one just for random rides on nice weather days.

https://newatlas.com/motorcycles/ola-electric-roadster-motorcycles/

PPI at 0.1 brings us solidly back in line with pre-covid inflation numbers; with the 12-month at 2.2.

Core PPI still higher at 0.3 (3.3 for the 12 month period).

Certainly feels like the covid kinks have mostly worked out at this point and prices have stabilized… If there’s no shocks it’s looking much more likely the Fed lowers interest rates this quarter.

This is great momentum; especially if it helps down ballot Colin Allred defeat Ted Cruz for the senate. Some polling has him within 5 points (or even tied in a few polls earlier this year). It’s a bit of a stretch; but Texas is notorious for it’s low voter turnout. Moving a few % of this non-voting population to feel like their vote matters & get them to show up would be enough to shift these races!

Fair point; I was throwing around off-the-cuff numbers. You’re right that 15 or 30 year mortgages are the time frames to calculate around.

The inflation adjustment is valid too. If rates drop refinance options are available at the mortgage holder’s convenience (assuming their terms allow it, but most do); but taking advantage of decreasing rent often requires a move; not nearly as easy as a purely paperwork based refinance.

My mindset is still stuck in the 2010s; when inflation was mild & rates were at historic lows for nearly the entire decade.

You don’t absolutely need credit, no. But it’s sometimes more efficient (financially) to buy things on credit.

Housing is a typical example of this. To save up for the full price of a house will likely take someone years (at least 10, likely more). In that time, you’re (probably) paying rent and not accumulating any net worth for doing so. In contrast if you buy a house on credit (mortgage) you may be paying almost the same amount in mortgage & insurance as you would for an equivalent rent; but at the end of the ~10 years you’ll finish the loan and have a paid off house. If instead you spent all that money on rent, you’d have only the amount saved in addition to the rent paid.

There’s many online rent or mortgage calculators to show when it’s a financial benefit to hold a property on mortgage as opposed to rent & save any difference… it is not always the case that owning your housing is more financially efficient; but for many people it is.

Similar with a car; if you need a car for your income (e.g. your commute isn’t feasible nor reliable via other transportation means); you can’t save up for a car with income you require a car to earn. Of course, this is why many advocate for better transit options and to move away from car-centric cities and lifestyles. But not everyone is able to achieve a car-free life (especially in much of the US).

The other big reason to use credit: you often get real benefits for doing so! Paying in cash occasionally offers a discount; but that’s only the case at a minority of places. In most cases you can pay the same price with either credit or cash, but also receive some benefit from the credit company (e.g. miles, points, cash-back, etc… your card options will vary). Why is this the case? The current state (in the US) is that credit card companies make money on transaction fees to merchants. In order for one card company to encourage you to use their card over a competitor’s they offer some form of incentive. The merchant’s transaction fee is why you’ll sometimes see merchants offer a cash discount; and if that’s the case you’re often better off paying cash. But when price is the same for credit or cash, you’re leaving money on the table by choosing cash (or rather, you’re giving some percentage of your purchase to the merchant instead of splitting it with the credit card vendor).

VIX under 20 isn’t a warning… The stock market valuation indicator I agree with: stocks are a bit over valued right now. But over valued just means we need a correction… not whether it will be a mild or severe one.

What’s more troubling is the market reacting already to nonsense trump comments. From the caption in the linked article:

The latest market sell-off was partly triggered by former President Donald Trump’s comments on Taiwan and tariffs.

Does no one else remember the dumpster fire that was the markets jumping at every comment and policy flip-flop during his four year term? The same volatility indicator (VIX) regularly jumped over 20 after some dumb trade policy comment…

I’m curious on the figure for Viz media, as it seems to me like that low a percentage is US only, not worldwide … But that’s a gut reaction as I’ve not ever bothered to look up their revenue numbers.

Prices are flat, or falling? https://www.newsweek.com/texas-housing-market-falters-prices-fall-sales-drop-1927108

Two different articles, two different numbers:

the statewide median home price showed nearly flat growth, rising 0.6% year over year to $345,000.

vs

The median sale price of a home in Texas was $354,800 in June, according to the real estate brokerage, down 0.94 percent year-over-year.

That’s the kind of smart CEO behavior that justifies his almost $45B+ compensation package. /s